It's that time again! 2006 Oscar predictions...

First off, okay, I admit that between a long day at work and a certain very large and obvious soft spot for our men and women in uniform, my post yesterday evening may have been harsher than it needed to be. As Bob and who I can only assume is the ubiquitous "other white meat" pointed out, there is a certain need for lack of distractions on the battlefield. I'm torn on the issue, but stand by my concern for the basic freedoms of our soldiers. Though the latter comment makes me wonder if all the lyrics pages for Dispatch's The General have been blocked...

Now, on to more important, by which I mean less important but perhaps more interesting, things: my 2006 Oscar picks. This will follow the format of my picks for last year, with my guess as to who will win, followed by my opinion on who should win. There were no glaring omissions this year in the major categories, unlike last year's snubbing of "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind", so I will keep my choices within the confines of the nominees, unlike last year:

Best Original Screenplay:

What should win: "Match Point". Usually this one is more clear cut for me, but nothing really stood out like "Eternal Sunshine" last year. I'm going with "Match Point" just because the writing stuck out for me more with it than the others I've seen.
What will win: Wild guess, as I honestly have no clue: "Syriana"

Best Adapted Screenplay:

What should win: "Brokeback Mountain". To adapt a short story into a screenplay with this amount of depth of character and emotion is quite a feat.
What will win: "Brokeback Mountain".

Best Supporting Actor:

Who should win: Hard to decide between Jake Gyllenhaal and Matt Dillon, who both did fantastic jobs. I have to go with Gyllenhaal, because his role was bigger and showcased him more. (Also, he did a great job in "Jarhead" as well -- not that that matters.)
Who will win: Dillon. Just a gut feeling.

Best Supporting Actress:

Who should win: I hear most people say Amy Adams, but I haven't seen "Junebug" yet. I have to go with Rachel Weisz, who I've liked for a long time, but I'd be just as happy with Michelle Williams.
Who will win: Williams.

Best Actor:

Who should win: I really liked Heath Ledger in "Brokeback", and Terence Howard in "Hustle & Flow", and David Straithairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck", but ultimately I've gotta give it to Joaquin Phoenix for his dead-on portrayal of Johnny Cash.
Who will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, which will likely also be my "should" answer once I see "Capote". And frankly, it's about time Hoffman got recognized for his work.

Best Actress:

Who should win: Reese Witherspoon's funny and sad portrayal of June Carter was great, and should be hard to beat.
Who will win: Witherspoon.

Best Director:

Who should win: Tough call between Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg. "Brokeback" was beautifully shot, but I have to go Spielberg just for the wonderful grittiness and scope of "Munich"
Who will win: Ang Lee.

Best Picture:

Who should win: "Brokeback Mountain" was a wonderful story with superb acting and directing, but I've gotta give this one to "Crash" for its many nuanced characters and interlocking storylines as well as its ability to provoke thought and introspection.
Who will win: "Brokeback Mountain".

Given last year's success, these picks should all be taken with a grain of salt. Make that several grains. Hell, just empty the shaker.

Song lyric of the day:
"And it goes fast
You think of the past
And suddenly everything has changed"
- the Flaming Lips, Suddenly Everything Has Changed